Bowling Green, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

554
FXUS63 KLMK 310521
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
121 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and storms expected thorugh this evening.
  Organized severe weather is not expected.

* Scattered storms possible Saturday afternoon across SW Indiana and
  into central/southern KY.  Gusty winds and small hail will be
  possible with that activity.

* Weather to turn drier and warmer early next week.

* Active weather pattern to return by mid-late week with
  strong/severe storms possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

Earlier convective activity has diminished across the region and
skies have started to clear out.  Visible satellite imagery shows a
bit of wildfire smoke from Canada dropping down into the base of the
trough axis.  This should result in some enhanced colors for
tonight`s sunset across the region.  Temperatures across the region
were in the mid-upper 60s east of I-65.  Out across western KY,
temperatures were still in the lower 70s.  Overall, current forecast
remains on track.  Grid edits were made to remove PoPs a bit earlier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

Surface low over WV will continue to move northeast this afternoon.
Behind this system, a deep northwest flow regime will continue
across the region.  Boundary layer heating and cooling aloft will
result in rather steep low-level lapse rates this afternoon
promoting additional convective development across the region. Shear
isn`t particularly strong and neither is the instability.
Nonetheless, convection this afternoon will produce brief heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail in the strongest, most
vigorous cores.  Convection is expected to wind down this evening
with the loss of heating.  As for temperatures, we`ll see a gradient
across the region.  In areas that see sunshine, temperatures will
warm into the lower to middle 70s.  However, for much of our area,
temps will likely remain in the upper 50s and lower 60s due to
extensive cloud cover.  Some partial clearing this afternoon, may
allow temps west of I-75 to warm into the mid-upper 60s before we
lose heating.

For tonight, deep upper level troughing will remain in place across
the eastern CONUS.  However, upper an upper level jet max be seen
from WI down IN into eastern KY.  We`ll be in the left exit region
of that jet and some additional showers will be possible, mainly
across the Bluegrass region overnight.  Lows overnight will be in
the mid-upper 50s in most locations.

For Saturday, we`ll see a backdoor cold front drop into the region
during the morning hours and then push into central/southern KY
during the afternoon.  Convergence along the front looks to be
enough to kick off an additional round of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon mainly along a line from roughly Jasper, IN through
E-town to near Somerset.  Model proximity soundings along this line
show steep low and mid-level lapse developing during the afternoon
hours, while the wind field remains northwesterly through the column
though it does show a bit of speed shear as hodographs are some
elongated.  Given the instability and shear, gusty winds and
marginally severe hail would be the main threats with this activity.

Highs on the day will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s
across SE Indiana and the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky where
the front will have already passed through. To the south of the
frontal boundary, afternoon highs look to warm into the mid-upper
70s with a few lower 80s possible down in our southwestern sections.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

Saturday Night through Sunday Night...

Ongoing convection at the beginning of the period should diminish
rapidly in the evening as the boundary layer cools. Lows Saturday
night will feature a gradient with readings in the lower 40s across
southeast IN and into the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky.
Upper 40s/lower 50s will be seen across much of southern IN and the
central (I-65) portion of Kentucky with upper 50s across southwest
KY.  Mainly dry weather is expected for Sunday, though the slow
moving frontal boundary will be just south of our region.  Some
additional convection may fire along the boundary, but looks to stay
south of the LMK forecast area.  Highs Sunday will warm into the
lower 70s over the Bluegrass region with mid-upper 70s elsewhere. A
few spots may touch 80 out near the I-165 corridor.  Lows Sunday
night will drop into the mid-upper 40s with lower 50s elsewhere.

Monday through Tuesday Night...

Upper level ridging will then build into the region in earnest on
Monday and continue into the day on Tuesday.  Surface high pressure
will be in control of our weather and keep things dry and
increasingly warmer through this part of the forecast period.  Highs
Monday look to warm into the upper 70s to the lower 80s with
overnight lows mid-upper 50s.  Temperatures should warm up even more
on Tuesday with highs in the 83-88 degree range.  Lows Tuesday night
will be mild with mid-upper 60s for lows.

Wednesday through Friday...

Upper ridging is expected to shift eastward on Wednesday as a mid-
level trough axis pushes eastward out of the Plains.  The models
have a little spread here with the GFS being a little faster with
the ridge moving off, while the Euro holds sway and keeps much of
Wednesday dry.  For now, will just keep a chance of showers/storms
in the forecast for our western areas on Wednesday.  A higher chance
of storms looks likely Wednesday night through Friday as a slow
moving frontal boundary pushes through the region.  Strong/severe
storms will be possible during this period as there will be adequate
shear/instability across the region.  Additionally rounds of heavy
rainfall look likely here as we`ll be in a deep moisture plume off
the Gulf late next week and into week two.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

Largely VFR conditions through this TAF period outside of any brief
SHRA/TSRA. Isolated convection will continue to dive southeast over
central KY while diminishing over the next few hours. LEX/RGA are
the most likely to see brief impacts.

Additional isolated to scattered convection is expected later this
afternoon and evening ahead of a NW to SE oriented cold front
dropping south from IN/OH. Included a PROB30 mention for SHRA at LEX
with this TAF, but otherwise coverage/confidence is too limited to
include at this time. Brief gusty winds and small hail will be
possible in any stronger shower/storm this afternoon and evening. NW
winds will also increase to 10-15 kts by midday, with gusts of 20-25
kts possible this afternoon and early evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...EBW